Feb 07, 2026
3 min read
From the fragile American-Iranian dialectic to the crisis in Gaza, passing through Syria and rivalries within the Gulf, the Middle East is entering a phase of systemic instability.According to Giuseppe Dentice (OsMed), today risk management, instead of final solutions, prevails in order to curb escalation and fragmentation.
In recent months, the Middle East has entered a phase of high-density structural instability, in which many - apparently - separate issues and tensions overlap and intensify.At the center of this fragile framework is the triangle between the United States, Israel and Iran, which continues to represent the cornerstone of regional security dynamics.Thus, both sides chose to speak.
"Relations between Washington and Tehran have returned to the oscillation between deterrence and diplomacy: on the one hand, strengthening the US military posture and assertiveness signals sent to Iran with the aim of containing the risks of uncontrolled escalation; on the other hand, by expressing a desire to directly negotiate or negotiate, Israel plays an ambiguous, but ambiguous political context on nuclear power. said. Giuseppe Dentis Studies Institute Osmed analyst commented.
Tel Aviv See every opening of the America's opening and Iran with great prisions, mope with a replacement on the Next Consultance actively supported by Tehran in the region.Israel's stress on the United States - next Dentis - need to read as a form to gain, the terms of a language agrey, rather than tomance completely.However, in practice, the site for a wide agreement is very limited.
The most realistic scenario?" This is the scenario of an interim agreement that blocks some sensitive actions by Iran in exchange for selective sanctions relief, in order to buy time and reduce the risk of military escalation. At this phase, in fact, the negotiations seem to function more as a risk management tool than as a final resolution of the dispute."
Does the Gaza crisis fit into this picture as one of the most important multipliers of instability?" That is: the so-called 'Phase Two' of the ceasefire presents itself as a disabling phase from the beginning, because the de-escalation of hostilities has not been converted into a real process of political stabilization. On the ground, the strip is characterized by a wide area of disruption and destabilization. Humanitarian aid, while security control is an unresolved issue."
The proposals so far - the advancement of a non-military, transitional regime led by Palestinian technocracy and an international oversight mechanism - clash with deep-seated political issues.Technical management of the Gaza Strip has shifted to an illegitimate administrative solution that fails to address central political issues, strengthen the Palestinian National Authority, and strengthen the most internal Palestinian unity.
Moreover, broadening our perspective, Syria represents a laboratory of regional competitiveness.Conflicts and tensions between the central government and Kurdish forces in the north of the country indicate the instability of the state reform process.lies".
The result is a change in which the Kurdish file is not only an internal matter for Syria, but also an area of indirect competition between regional actors.In this situation, the relationship between Israel and Turkey is increasingly taking the form of conflict and competition.which are united against their surroundings.it is perceived by others as a relative loss, which incites a cycle of indirect actions and defensive positions”.
Inter-Gulf tensions contribute to fill the regional picture, especially between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. What once looked like a solid partnership has gradually turned into a competition for regional leadership, as seen in the Yemen dossier and energy projects in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. According to Dentais, disagreements over local alliances, port control and patterns of influence"Systemic crises such as Iran have eroded the unity of the Gulf, or greater coordination in the region is necessary for the security of shipping." For analysts, this rivalry does not translate into an open conflict, "but acts as a fragmenting factor that weakens regional mediation capacity, complicates the management of peripheral but strategic theaters, and for external actors, including the European Union."Unpredictability increases.
The overall picture is of an area where conflicts can no longer be analyzed in isolation.The Iran nuclear talks, the fragile Gaza accord, the incomplete reconstruction of Syria and the intra-Gulf rivalry are part of a single unstable regional system characterized by unstable balances, deteriorating control and unresolved political processes."In this context, in the absence of structural solutions, risk management and escalation prevention are the most realistic options in short-term goals," concludes Dentis.
