Under the threat of occupation - Mohammad Mansour -

After heavy bombing and evacuation orders, Israel prepares to invade a neighboring country.History repeats itself Read

Amid the smoke billowing from Dahiyeh, a rapidly evacuated district on the southern outskirts of Beirut, the Israeli army's evacuation plan is being heard.

The warnings, along with bombardments of the capital and other areas of southern Lebanon, contrast with French diplomatic proposals to halt Israel's latest war against its northern neighbor.However, some analysts believe that the apparent inconsistency between Israel's actions and possible negotiations actually reflects a new situation created by Israel on the ground: occupying Lebanese territory to ensure a negotiating advantage.

The human cost of war is staggering.According to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, since March 2, the Israeli offensive has killed 886 people.More than a million people were forced to live in overcrowded shelters.The escalation comes as Hezbollah's Shia militia attacks Israeli targets in response to the February 28 attack by Israel and the US on Iran. This is how the last 2024 resemblance to the November truce between Hezbollah and Israel, which has practically collapsed, has been destroyed.

French President Emmanuel Macron has called for direct talks between Beirut and Tel Aviv and Paris, warning that "everything must be done to prevent Lebanon from falling into chaos".It is the Israeli military that sets the stage for negotiations.

Many observers say Israel will try to use its military presence to impose a different security architecture, taking advantage of the occupation of the southern countryside.According to Ziad Mayed, a professor of political science at the American University of Paris, the current diplomatic initiative means that the Lebanese army will have to disarm Hezbollah under the supervision of the United States and France.By maintaining control over parts of Lebanese territory, Israel is forcing Lebanon to negotiate its sovereignty, leaving it unclear whether Israeli troops will end, eventually withdraw, or the occupied territories will be permanently transformed into an uninhabited buffer zone.

Israel has already deployed six military divisions on the northern border, including about one hundred thousand soldiers.Military experts point to the town of Khiam in southern Lebanon as the focal point of a possible ground advance.Retired Lebanese General Bahaa Hallal Khiam said it is the "geographic key" to control the Marjayoun plain and the Hasbani valley leading to the Litani River.warned that it would allow a buffer zone to be created.

For Imad Salamey, a professor of international relations at the American University in Lebanon, the deployment of Israeli forces shows that Tel Aviv, which has military power, is not in a hurry to negotiate.

Disarmament and internal fractures

The crisis in Lebanon reveals the deep social cracks in the country.According to official sources, the presidency, the government and the Lebanese parliament are holding urgent consultations to form a delegation of six diplomats to be sent to negotiate a ceasefire, perhaps in Cyprus.However, Nabih Berri, the president of the Lebanese parliament, refused to include representatives of the Shiite community in the delegation.The debate on disarming Hezbollah, a demand not only from Israel but also from Western governments, threatens to drag Lebanon into civil war.

Some say the Lebanese army must do more.“The State must force them to hand over their weapons, even by force if necessary”, observes analyst Toni Boulos.Others, however, such as political scientist Ali Matar, consider this option irresponsible.Matar thinks that ordering the national army – made up of a significant percentage of Shia soldiers – to attack Hezbollah (a Shia-led movement) would create a division in the army.Researchers also highlight the state's inability to protect its citizens in the sixteen months that have passed since the repeatedly violated ceasefire with Israel.

Negotiations in the crosshairs

Neither side in the conflict appears ready to make immediate concessions.Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar rejected the possibility of direct talks and called on the Lebanese government to first take concrete initiatives to stop Hezbollah's military activities.On the other hand, Naim Qassem, the secretary general of the Shia organization, said that diplomatic solutions will not work to stop the killings and the final results will be seen on the battlefield.He insisted he was advising the Lebanese government not to make "free concessions".

Some observers draw comparisons between the current political climate and the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982. Meanwhile, historic negotiations, held under Israeli military occupation, culminated in the May 17, 1983 agreement.

More than forty years later, a new generation of Lebanese families are taking refuge all over Beirut.People talk about diplomacy, but now their homes in the south have become bargaining chips for the Israeli occupation forces.◆ fdl

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This article was published in issue 1657 on page 16. Buy this issueSubscription