Feb 19, 2026
3 min read
vum Giuseppe Gagliano -
Here's the scene: a truce signed at the end of December, a "peace" deal already collapsed within weeks, and a border that continues to smolder in the ashes.Hun Manet says that Thailand is "burning" Cambodian territory, Bangkok replied that it is only maintaining the positions of the stipulated de-escalation measures.they want to freeze without a solution: the sign is transplanted into the ground and then protected with a narrative.
The political point is that the truce will last as long as no one blows it up.But Hun Manet, in his first major meeting with the international press, decided to say that the situation was "fragile": translation, it would not take long to get back into the fight.
The Cambodian request to restart the Joint Border Commission seems reasonable: measure, separate, return the dispute to technical channels.But therein lies the ambiguity.The "technique" in disputed borders is politically disguised: whoever accepts the commission also accepts the negotiating ground, the treaties that are referred to, the maps that are used as reference.This is why Bangkok is taking its time, and why Phnom Penh is now on the point that Thailand's election is over: Hun Manet wants to take the domestic calendar excuse from Thailand and force it to choose between two uncomfortable options, accept verification or take responsibility for the blockade.
Meanwhile, every day that passes, it makes the work harder on the ground.And this is a "technological" problem that becomes a success.
The worst conflict in a decade, which began in July, has had two classic effects: displaced people and disruption of trade across a long border.When this happens, the border becomes just a line on the map and becomes a daily economic problem: impassable goods, rising prices in the provinces, the breakdown of logistics chains, the political margin of patriotic rhetoric.
Hun Manet, Thailand's prime minister, claimed that nationalism had "fallen" during his election campaign.This is an accusation that serves two purposes: to explain why Thailand is not moving and, at the same time, to prepare public opinion for a possible tightening.Because when a neighbor "occupies" the answer cannot be just patience.
And then there is the external: the mediation that is related to Trump, and on the use of publicity for that purpose.The "Peace Panel" was created for a plan in Gaza, but it is presented as a shop, a political shield that spreads over other issues to ensure leadership and success.For Hun Manet it is necessary: to bring the problem into the circuit of American attention is to increase the price of a new increase.But there is also a problem: if peace becomes the champion that must be shown, the temptation is to declare "progress" even though it is only the liberation of war.
And indeed the October 2025 deal quickly fell through.Important detail: This suggests that the negotiation architecture is more fragile than depicted.
Hun Manet is trying to change the situation in Cambodia: warm relations with Washington without breaking away from Beijing.It's a common way of independent equidistance, but here it has a special point: the country comes from years of relations with China, and the Ream military base, strengthened by Chinese support, is a symbol that the Americans read strategically, not a business key.
To say "they are not mutually exclusive" is to ask the United States something difficult: to accept Cambodia working hard with Washington but maintaining structural integration with China.It doesn't change
The play also deals with internal issues such as human rights, freedom of the press and the larger problem of computer fraud centers.Hun Manet tries to redefine democracy to include health, education, freedom of the press, but the media freedom index and the arrest of journalists remains a rock.And there is an additional layer to online fraud: the United States has already used targeted sanctions, a sign that it considers the phenomenon not only criminal but also geopolitical, as it affects citizens and financial systems around the world.
The message for Phnom Penh is: we are intervening, we are creating a law, we are not involved. For Washington, another question is: how much real control does the state have over these ecosystems, and how much does it tolerate them because they bring in money and networks?
This problem does not affect only one part of the field.It is a test of Cambodia's independence and a test of Thailand's loyalty.It is a testing ground for the new Hun Man and the ability of the United States to "prove" stability without construction.As long as the border has physical barriers and people who do not return, peace is a responsibility, not a reality.And in Southeast Asia, when peace is the theme, war is always the way back.
